 C00015458
 COTS AND SUGGESTIONS OF tF0 PANEL
 f
 The Panel Members were impressed with the lack of
 sound data in the great majority of case histories.  Among
 the case histories of significant sightings discussed in
 detail were the following:
 Bellefontaine, Ohio (l August 1952); Tremonton, Utah
 (2 July 1952); Great Falls, Mon:.-ana (15 August 1950);
 Yank, Uontana (l September 1952); Washington, D.C.
 area (19 July 1952); and Haneda A.F.B., Japan
 (5 August 1952), Port-Huron, Michigan (29 July 1952);
 and Presque Isle, Maine (10 October 1952).
 After review and discussion of these cases (and about
 25 others, in less detail), the Panel concluded that
 reasonable explanations could be suggested for most sight-
 ings and "by deduction and scientific method it could be
 induced (given additional data) that other cases might be
 explained in a similar manner".  The Panel pointed out that
 because of the brevity of some sightings (e.g., 2-3 seconds)
 and the inability of the witnesses to express themselves
 clearly (semantics) that conclusive explanations could not
 be expected for every case reported.  Furthermore, it was
 considered that, normally, it would be a great waste of
 effort to try to solve most of the sightings, unless such
 C00015458
 action would benefit a training and educatidnal program
 (see below).  The writings of Charles Port were referenced
 to show that "strange things in the sky" had been recorded
 for hundreds of years.  it appeared obvious that there was
 no single explanation for a majority of the things seen.
 On Lack of Danger.
 The Panel concluded unaninously'that there was no
 evidence of a direct threat to national security in the
 objects sighted.  Instances of "Poo P,.ghters" were cited.
 These were unexplained phenomena sighted by aircraft
 pilots during World gar II in 'both European and Far East
 theaters of operatic wherein "balls of light" would fly
 rear or with the aircraft and maneuver rapidly..  They were
 believed to be electrostatic (similar to St. Elmo's fire)
 or electromagnetic phenomena or possibly light reflections
 from ice crystals in th. air, but their exact cause or
 nature was never deti:.~-d.  If the rterm "tlying saucers"
 had been popular in 1943-1945, than. objects would have
 been so labeled.
 It was the panel's opinion that some of the Air Force
 concern over TIFO's (notwithstanding Air Defense Command
 anxiety over fast radar tracks) was probably caused by
 public pressure.  The result today In-that the Air Force
 C00015458
 M
 has instituted a fine channel for receiving reports of
 nearly anything anyone sees in the sky and fails to under-
 stand.  This has been particularly encouraged in popular
 articles on this and other subjects, such as space travel
 and science fiction.  The result is the mass receLpt of
 low-grade reports which tend to overload channels of
 communication with material quite irrelevant to hostile
 objects that might some day appear.  -The panel agreed
 generally that this mass of poor-quality reports containing
 little, if any, scientific data was of no value.  Quite
 the opposite, it was possibly dangerous in having a military
 service foster public concern in "nocturnal meandering
 tights".  The implication being, since the interested
 agency  as military, that these objects were or might be
 potent-'al direct threats to national security.  Accordingly,
 the used for deemphasization made itself apparent.   Comments
 on a possible educational program are enumerated below.
 It was the opinion of one of the Panel members.tbat
 the "saucer" problem had been found to be different in
 nature from the detection and investigation of German V-1
 and V-Z guided missiles prior to their, operational use In
 World War II.  In this 1943-1944 intelligence operation
 (CROSSBOW), there was excellent intelligence, and by June
 000015458
 1944 there was material evidence of the-existence of
 "hardware" obtained from crashed vehicles in Sweden.  This,
 evidence gave the investigating team a basis upon which to
 operate.  The absence of any "hardware" resulting from
 unexplained tWO sightings lends a "will-of-the-wisp"  nature
 to the problem.  The results of the investigation, to-date,
 strongly indicate that no evidence of hostile act or
 danger exists.  Furthermore, the current reporting' system
 woLid have little value in the case of detection of enemy
 attack by conventional aircraft or guided missiles; under
 such conditions-"hardware" would be available almost at
 once.
 Artifacts of Extratorrestial Origin.
 It was interesting to note that none of the members of'
 the Panel were loath to accept that this earth might be
 visited by extraterrestrial intelligence beings of some
 sort, some day.  What they did not find was any evidence
 that related the objects sighted to space travelers.  One
 of the Panel members, in his presentation, showed how he
 had eliminated each of the known and probable causes of
 sightings leaving him "extra-terrestial" as the only one
 remaining in many cases.  His background as an aeronaut-
 ical engineer and technical intelligence officer could not
 C00015458
 the cases cited by his because they were raw, unevaluated
 reports.  Terrestrial explanations of the sightingSwere
 suggested in some cases, and in others the time of sighting
 was so short as to cause suspicion of visual impressions.
 It was noted by others of the Panel members that extra-
 terrest.ial artifacts, it they did exist, are no cause for
 alarm; rather, they are in.tbe realm of-natural phenomena
 subject to scientific study, Just as'cosmic rays were at
 the-time of their discovery  0 to 30 years ago.  This was
 an attitude in which anotbr: of the Panel members did not
 concur, as he-felt that'such artifacts would. be of immediate
 and great concern not only to the._V.S. but to all countries.
 (Nothing like a common threat::   r alto peoples!), It was
 noted that present astrnowledge of the solar system
 makes the existence of intelligence' beings (as we know the
 term) else-share than on the'earth extremely unlikely, and
 the concentration of their attention by any controllable
 means confined to any one continent of the earth quite
 preposterous.
 Tremontoa~__Utah
 ,Sighti  .
 This case was considered significant because of the
 .excellent documentary evidence in the form of Kodachrome
 notion picture films (about 1600 frames).  The Panel
 5
 C000154581
 OV9
 studied these films, the case history, ATIC's interpreta-
 tion, and received a briefing by representatives of the
 USN Photo Interpretation Laboratory on their analysis of
 the film.  This team had expended (at Air Pbrce request)
 approximately 1000 man-hours of professional and sub-
 professional time in the preparation of graph plots of
 individual frames of the film, showing apparent and.
 relative motion of objects.and variation in their light
 intensity. It was the opinion of the P.I.L. representatives
 that the objects sighted were not birds, balloons or
 aircraft, were "not reflections because there was no
 blinking while passing through 600 of arc" and were,
 therefore, "self-luminous".  Plots of notion and variation
 in light intensity of the objects were displayed.  While
 the Panel ;:embers were impressed by the evident enthusiasm,
 industry and extent of effort of-the P.I.L; team, they
 would not accept the conclusions reached.  Some of the
 reasons for this were as follows:
 a.  A semi-spherical object can readily
 produce a reflection of sunlight without "blink-
 ing" through 600 of are travel.
 b.  Although no date vas available on the
 "albedo" of birds or polyethylene balloons
 on,
 C00015458
 in bright sunlight, the apparent motions, sizes
 and brightnesses of the ob3eets?were considered
 strongly to suggest birds, particularly after the
 Panel viewed a short film showing high reflectivity
 of seagulls in bright sunlight.
 a.  P.I.L. description of the objects sighted
 as "circular, bluish-white" in color would be
 bxpected in cases of specular reflections of sun-
 light from convex surfaces where the brilliance
 of the reflection would obscure other portions of
 the object.
 d.  Objects in the Great Falls case were
 believed to have. probably been aircraft, and the
 bright lights such reflections.
 e.  There was no valid reason for the attempt
 to relate the objects in the Tremonton sighting to
 those in the Great Falls sighting.  This may have
 been due to misunderstanding in their directive.
 The objects in the Great Falls sighting are
 strongly suspected of being reflections of air-
 craft known to have been in the area.
 S.  The intensity change in the Tremoonton
 lights was too great for acceptance of the P.Z.L.
 hypothesis that the apparent motion and changing
 C00015458
 intensity of the lights indicated extremely high.
 speed in small orbital paths.            ?
 g.  Apparent lack.-of guidance of investi-
 gators by those familiar with UPO reports and
 explanations.
 h.  Analysis of light intensity of objects
 made from duplicate rather than original film.
 The. original film was noted to have a much lighter
 background (affecting relative brightness of
 object) ant the objects appeared. such less bright.
 i.  Method of obtaining data of light
 intensity appeared faulty. because of unsuitability
 of equipment and questionable assumptions in making
 averages of readings.
 No data had been. obtained oi: the cansi-
 aivity of Kodachrome film to light of various
 intensities using the same camera type at the
 same lens openings.
 k.   Hand "Jitter" frequencies (obtainable
 from early part of Tremonton film)'were not
 removed from. the plots of the "single pass plots"
 at the end of the film.
 C00015458
 The panel believed strongly that the data available
 on this sighting was sufficient for positive identification
 if further data is obtained by p~.-%tographir.   .olyethylene
 "pillow" balloons released near the site under similar
 weather conditions, checking bird flight and reflection
 characteristics with competent ornithologists and calculating
 apparent "G" forces acting upon objects from their apparent
 tracks.  It was concluded that the results of such tests
 would probably lead to creditable explanations of value in
 as educational or- training. program.  However, the panel
 noted that the cost in technical manpower effort required
 to follow up and, explain. every one of the thousand or
 more reports received through channels each year (1,800 in
 1952) cc_ld not be justified.  It was felt that there will
 always be sightings, for which complete data is lacking,
 that can only be explained with disproportionate effort
 and with a long time delay, if at all.  The long delay in
 explaining a ,ighting tends to-eliminate any intelligence
 value.  The educational or training program should have
 as a major purpose the elimination of popular feeling that
 every sighting, no matter how poor the data, must be
 .explained in detail.  Attention should be directed to the
 requirement among scientists that a new phenomena, to be
 accepted, must be completely and convincingly documented.
 9
 C00015458
 Xn other words, the burden of proof is on the sighter,
 not the explainer.
 Potential Related Dangers.-
 The Panel Members were in agreement that although
 evidence of any direct threat from these.sightings was
 wholly lacking, related dangers might well exist resulting
 a.  Misidentification of actual enemy arti-
 facts by defense personnel.
 b., Overloading of emergency reporting
 channels with "false" information ("noisato signal
 ratio").
 c.  subjectivity of public to mass hysteria
 and greater vulmerebility to possible enemy
 pslchological,warfare.
 The first two of these problems may seriously affect
 the Air Defense intelligence system, and should be studied
 by experts, possibly under.ADC.  If UPO's become dis-
 credited in & .rotation to the "flying saucer" scare, or if
 reporting channels are saturated with false and poorly
 documented reports, our capability of detecting hostile
 activity will be reduced.  More competent screening or
 filtering of reported sightings at or near the source is
 C00015458
 required, and this can best be accomplished by an educa-
 tional program.
 Geographic Locaticsns of Unexplained Sightings.
 The map, prepared by ATIC showing geographic locations
 of officially reported unexplained sightings (1952 only).
 was.examined by the Panel.  This map showed clusters in
 certain strategic areas such as Los Alamos.  This might
 be explained on the basis of 24-hour watchful guard and
 awareness of security measures near such locations.  On
 the other hand, there had been no sightings in the vicinity
 of sensitive related AE establishments while there were
 occasionally multiple cases of unexplained sightings in
 non-strategic areas.  Furthermore, there appeared to be
 no logical relationship to population centers.  The panel
 could fifld no ready explanation for these clusters.  It
 was noted, havever, that if terrestrial artifacts were to
 be observed, it would be likely that they =?ovld be seen
 first near foreign areas rather than camp. .i U.S.
 Instrumentation to Obtain Data.
 The Panel was of the opinion that the present.ATIC
 program to place 100 inexpensive 35 mm, stereo cameras
 (Videon Cameras) in the hands of various airport control
 tower operators would -robably produce lltti  .;l-able
 C00015458l"
 data related to UFO's.  Kowever, it was recognized that
 such action would tend to allay public concern in the
 subject until an educational program bad taken effect.  It
 was believed that procurement of these cameras was partly
 the result of -public pressure in July 1552.  with the poor
 results of the year-long Project TWINKLE program of 24-hour
 instrumentation watch (two frames of film showing nothing
 distinguishable), a widespread program of skywatching would
 not be expected to yield much direct data of value.
 There was considerable discussion of a possible "sky
 patrol" by amateur astronomers and by wide-angle cameras.
 It was pointed out that at present a considerable fraction
 of the sky is now -- and bas been for many years -- under
 surveillance every clear night in several meteor and aurora
 observing programs as well as sky mapping programs at the
 various locations listed below.  Although the attention of
 these astronomers is largely directed toward identified
 rather than unidentified objects, no case of any striking
 unidentified object is known to the Panel.  Such an object
 would most certainly be reported if found on patrol plates.
 A case was cited where an astronomer refused to     '.
 `interrupt his-exposure in order to photograph an alleged
 sighting- in a dii:a==n: ;art of the sky, suggesting thzt if
 C00015458M
 a program of watching could be an adjdnct of planned
 astronomical programs, little cost would be involved and
 that the trained astronomical personnel might photograph
 a sighting of an unidentified object.
 It was agreed by the Panel that no government-sponsored
 program of optical nation-wide sky patrol is worthwhile
 at the present time, and that the encouragement of amateur
 astronomers to undertake'such a program might have the
 adverse effect of over-emphasizing "flying saucer" stories
 in the publio mind. However, the issue of radar-scope
 cameras for recording peculiar radar echoes would serve
 several purposes, including the better understanding of
 radar interference as well as identification of UFO's.
 This characteristic problem of radar operation
 wherein the pulse signal (of approximately the same
 frequency) from station A may be'picked up on the screen
 of station 9 and show as a high-speed track or series of
 dots was racogrtzed to have probably caused a number of
 UFO repots.  This problem was underlined by information
 received indicating ADC concern.in solving this problem
 of signal identification before service use of very
 high-speed aircraft or guided missiles (1953-1956).  One
 C00015458
 the use of_a "doppler filter" in the receiving circuit.
 Another suggested that the problem might be better-solved
 by the use of a "controlled jitter" wherein the operator
 receiving "very-fast tracks" (on the order of 1000-33000
 mph) would operate a circiuit.which would alter slightly
 his station's pulse frequency rate.  If the signal received
 on the screen had been caused by mutual interference with.
 another station, the track would now show itself at a
 different distance from the center of the screen, it it.
 still appeared at all.  Such a technical solution was thought
 to be simpler and would cost much less than a "doppler filter".
 Zio reported cases were examined:  one at Palomar
 3tountai_, California, in October 1949, when cosmic ray
 counters went "off scale for a few seconds", apparently
 while a "V" of flying saucers was observed visually; and
 two, a series of observations by the "Los Alamos Bird
 Watchers Association" from August 1950 to January 1951,
 when cosmic ray coincidence counters behaved queerly.
 Circuit diagrams and records were available for the latter,
 and a Panel member was also quickly to point out that the
 recorded d%ta were undoubtedly due to instrumental effects
 C00015458
 that would have been :recognized as such by more experienced
 observers.
 The implication that radioactive effects were cor-
 related with unidentified flying objects in these two cases
 was, therefore, rejected by the Panel.
 Educational Program.
 The Panel's concept of a broad educational program
 integrating efforts of all concerned agencies was that it
 should have two major aims:  training and "debunking".
 Thu.training aim would result in. proper recognition
 of unusually illuminated objects (e.g., balloons, aircraft
 reflections) as well as natural phenomena (meteors, fire-
 balls, mirages, noctilucent clouds).  Both visual and
 radar recognition are concerned..  There would be many levels
 in such education from enlisted personnel to command and
 research personnel.  Relative emphasis and degree of
 explanation of different programs would correspond to the
 .categories of duty (e.g., radar operators; pilots; control
 tower operators; Ground Observer Corps personnel; and
 officers and enlisted men in other categories).  This
 training should result in a marked reduction in reports
 caused by misidentification and resultant confusion.
 The "debunking" aim would result in reduction in
 public interest in "flying saucers" which today evgkes a
 C00015458
 strong psychological reaction.  This education could be
 accomplished by mass media such as television, potion
 pictures, and popular articles. Basi9 of such education
 would be actual case histories which had been puzzling
 at first but later explained.. As in the case of conjuring
 tricks, there is much less stimulation if the "secret" is
 known.  Such a program should tend to' reduce the current
 gullibility of the public and consequently their suscepti-
 bility to clever hostile propaganda.
 Meubers of the panel had various suggestions related
 to- the planning of such an educational program.  It was
 felt strongly that psychologists familiar with mass psy-
 chology should advise on the nature and extent of the
 program.  Also,?someone familiar with mass coas+unication
 techniques, perhaps an advertising expert, would be helpful.
 The teacr'ng techniques used for aircraft identification
 -during the pzst war were cited as-an example of a similar
 educational task.  The amateur astronomers in the U.S.
 might be a potential source of enthusiastic talent "to
 spread the gospel".  It was believed that business clubs,
 high schools, colleges, and television stations would all..
 be pleased to coops rate in the showing of documentary
 type cotton pictures if prepared in an interesting manner.
 C00015458
 The use of true cases showing first the "mystery" and
 then the "explanations" would be forceful.
 To plan and execute such a?program, the Panel believed
 was no mean task.  The current investigatory group at ATIC
 would, of necessity, have to be closely integrated for
 support with respect to not bn2y the historical cases but
 the current ones.  Recent cases are probably much sore
 susceptible to explanation than older ones; first, because
 of ATIC's experience and, secondly, their knowledge of most
 plausible explanations.  The Panel believed that some
 expansion of the ATIC- effort would certainly be required.
 to support such a program.  It was believed inappropriate
 to state exactly how large a Table of 4)rganization would be
 required.
 The Panel believed that, with ATIC's support, the
 educatio.l program of "training and debunking" outlined
 above mtgbt be requir?d for a minimum of one and one-half
 to two years.  At the end of this time, the dangers related
 to "flying saucers" should have been greatly reduced if not
 eliminated.  Cooperation from other military services and
 agencies concerned (e.g., Federal Civil Defense Administra-
 tion) would be a necessity.  In investigating significant
 cases (such as the Tremonton, Utah, sighting), controlled
 experiments might be required.  An example would be the
 C00015458
 photographying of "pillow balloons" at different distances
 under similar weather conditions at'the site.
 The help of one or two psychologists and writers
 and a subcontractor to.produce training films would be
 necessary in addition.  The panel cots idered that ATIC's
 efforts, temporarily expanded as necessary, could be most
 useful in implementing any action taken as a result of
 its recommendations.  Experience and records in ATIC would
 be of value in both the public educational and service
 training program envisaged.  At least one panel member was
 of the opinion that after public gullibility lessened and
 the service organizations, such as ADC, had been trained to
 sift out the more readily explained spurious sightings,
 there would still be a role for a very modest-sized ATIC
 section to cope with the residuum of items of possible
 scientific intelligence value.   ais section should con-
 centrate on energetically following up thcae cases which
 seemed to indicate the evidence of unconventional enemy
 artifacts.  Reports of such artifacts would be expected to
 arise mainly from Western outposts in far closer proximity-
 to the Iron Curtain than Lubbock, Texas!
 The panel took cognizance of the existence of such
 groups as the "Civilian Flying Saucer. Iwey;ia~to;s"
 C00015458
 (Los Angeles) and the "Aerial Phenomena Research Orgah- .
 ization (tfisconsin)".  It was believed that such organiza-
 tiohs should be watched because of their potentially great
 influence on mass thinking if widespread sightings should
 occur.  The apparent irresponsibility and the possible use
 of such groups for. subversive purposes should1be kept in
 mind.
 The cansensus of the panel was, based upon the history
 of the subject, that the number of sightings could be
 C00015458
 SCIENTIFIC ADVISORY PANEL ON UNIDENTIFIED
 FLYING OBJECTS
 14-17 January 1953
 Evidence Presented.
 1.  Seventy-five case histories of sightings 1951-1952
 (selected by ATIC as those best documented).
 2.  ATIC Status and Progress Reports of Project
 GRDUGE and Project BLUE BOOK (code names for ATIC
 study of subject).
 3.  Progress Reports of Project STORK (institute.
 contract work supporting ATIC).
 4.  Summary Report of SightingR? at Holleman Air Force
 Base, New Mexico.
 5.  Report of USAF Research Center, Cambridge, Mass.,
 Investigation of "Green Fireball" Phenomena
 (Project TWIN-ALE).
 6.  Outline of Investigation of UFO's Proposed by
 Kirtland Air Force Base (Project POUNCE).
 7.  Motion Picture Films of sightings at Tremonton,
 Utah, 2 July 1932 and Great Falls, Montana,
 August 1950.
 8.  Summary Report of 89 selected cases of sightings
 of various categories (Formations, Blinking Lights,
 Hovering, etc.).
 9.  Draft of manual:  'Bow to Make a FLYOBRPT", pre-
 pared at ATIC.
 10.  Chart Showing Plot of Geographic Location of
 Unexplain.4 Sightings in the United States during
 1952.
 11.  Chart Showing Balloon Launching Sites in the
 United States.
 12.  Charts Showing Selected Actual Balloon Flight
 Paths and Relation to Reported Sightings.
 C00015458
 13.  Charts Showing Frequency of.-Reports of Sightings
 1948-1952.
 14.  Charts Showing Categories of Explanations of
 Sightings.
 15.  Kodaohrome Transparencies of Polyethylene Film
 Balloons in Bright Sunlight Showing High
 Reflectivity.
 16.  Motion Picture of Seagulls in Bright Sunlight
 Showing High Reflectivity.
 17. .Intelligence Reports Relating to U.S.S.R.
 Interest in U.S. Sightings.-
 18.                                                       Samples of Official USAF Reporting Forms and
 Copies of Pertinent Air Force, Army, and Navy
 Orders Relating to Subject.
 19... Sample  Polyethylene, "Pillow" Balloon. (54 inches
 square.
 20.  "Variations in Radar Coverage", JANP101 (Manuel
 illustrating unusual operating characteristics
 of service radar).
 21.  Miscellaneous Official Letters and Foreign Intelli-
 gence Reports Dealing with Subject.
 22.  Copies Of Popular Published Works Dealing with
 Subject (articles and periodicals, newspaper
 clippings).

